The Fire Weather Accuracy and Lightning Ignition Probability System

Weather forecasts can help identify environmental conditions conducive to prescribed burning or to increased fire danger. These conditions are important components of fire management tools such as fire ignition potential maps, fire danger rating systems, fire behavior predictions, and smoke dispersion modeling. Fire managers use these tools to make decisions on when to conduct prescribed burns, how to manage wildfires, and how to pre-position fire suppression forces. Forecast weather conditions provide variables such as temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, precipitation (or lack thereof), and wind—these are used in models to predict outbreaks of dry thunderstorms, the moisture content of fuels, and fire behavior. Forecast accuracy varies by model and by location; therefore, improved forecast accuracy, data accessibility, and tools to aid decision makers were identified as important gaps to be filled.